Happy Labor Day and welcome back! Kids are heading back to school and commuter parking lots are full again. Even grandparents are feeling the change with revised baby-sitting schedules. While September does count as summer, Labor Day still feels like a kind of juncture. In fact, it’s almost a relief after a humid and volatile summer.
In late July, with the market at an all-time peak, we at Longwave were working on our summer newsletter. In our first draft, we reflected how the tepid yet resilient economic recovery of the last 10 years was so underappreciated. This period of calm allowed many to rebuild home equity and 401k balances, get back on track for retirement and regain confidence. As the markets continued to climb, we were taking the opportunity to shift conversations from investments to that of financial well-being.
Yet, before we could hit send, the mood shifted abruptly and our theme was suddenly old news. Although economic data hardly suggested impending doom, the headlines began warning of trade war with China and recession. In this environment we thought k better to address the apprehension many are feeling, while keeping the big picture and your own goals in perspective.
Since the financial crisis of 2008, there has been a collective mistrust of the stock market recovery. And why not, a trauma like that would make anyone develop PTSD. Every time in the past 10 years the stock market sneezed, we were half-expecting a diagnosis of pneumonia. Yet, the American consumer and the stock market continued to shrug off those mini-crisis and the economy remained healthy. Today, we must again try and guess, is the trade war between the US and China merely a sneeze or is it the start of something more serious?